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Researchers analyzed data on causes of death in 24 countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The researchers found that in 2020, life expectancy fell in all but four of the 24 countries included in the study, with the US experiencing the largest decline, by 2.1 years for men. In 2021, life expectancy fell further in most countries, with the largest losses of more than two years for women in Bulgaria and men in Latvia.
Lead author of the study Antonino Polizzi, from the Leverhulme Centre for Population Sciences, said: ‘This study examines the direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality worldwide, and emphasizes that by 2022, life expectancy in a number of countries has still not returned to pre-pandemic levels.’
The study found that, in addition to deaths from COVID-19, the main reason for the reduction in life expectancy in the first two years of the pandemic, especially in Russia and Eastern Europe, was the increase in cardiovascular-related mortality.
In 2020, cardiovascular disease-related mortality was highest in Russia (life expectancy decreased by 5.3 months). In 2021, cardiovascular disease-related life expectancy decreased by 5.5 months in Bulgaria. The authors suggest that this could be due to deficiencies in the prevention or treatment of cardiovascular disease or undercounting of deaths from COVID-19.
Study co-author Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Population Sciences and Oxford’s Department of Population Sciences, says: ‘The pandemic reversed years of progress in reducing cardiovascular disease mortality in several countries, one of the largest sources of life expectancy gains between 2015 and 2019. The losses continued until 2022.’
The study also found an increase in mortality from substance abuse and mental disorders in some countries during the pandemic. In the United States and Canada, drug-related mortality continued to increase, contributing to a reduction in life expectancy. Alcohol-related mortality also increased, with significant reductions in life expectancy observed in Latvia. However, suicide and accidental deaths generally declined during the pandemic years.
Japan and South Korea experienced minimal reductions in life expectancy during the pandemic and were exceptions to most of these trends. However, in Japan, women in 2020 had relatively high suicide mortality rates.
On the positive side, cancer mortality continued to decline in most countries. The authors suggest that cancer care was less affected than expected during the pandemic or that people with cancer were more susceptible to COVID-19 deaths that were subsequently not counted as cancer deaths.
The study concludes by emphasising the need for robust health systems that can cope with the crisis without compromising the treatment of other diseases. It also emphasises the importance of targeted public health interventions to address the different impacts across countries and age groups.
Study co-author Dr José Manuel Aburto, a demographer at the Leverhulme Centre for Population Sciences and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: ‘This study highlights the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic influences other causes of death and the need to analyse different diseases and causes of death in a post-pandemic context to identify factors that can improve global health systems.’
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